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Dec 31, 2012
12/12
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defense sector facing major cuts if we do go over the fiscal cliff. how that industry will be affected if we don't get a deal today, we'll talk about that after the break. stay with us. any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader streaming quotes. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. >>> they say the biggest priority is making sure we deal with the debt in a serious way. the way they're behaving is their only priority is making sure that tax breaks for the wealthiest americans are protected. >> there's no single issue that remains an impossible sticking point. the sticking point appears to be a willingness and interest, or frankly, the courage to close the deal. >> the deadline to get a deal done, steadily getting closer and closer. the defense industry wi
defense sector facing major cuts if we do go over the fiscal cliff. how that industry will be affected if we don't get a deal today, we'll talk about that after the break. stay with us. any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader...
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Nov 7, 2012
11/12
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prior to fiscal cliff. some would argue that companies are already pulling back and that the impact of the fiscal cliff is being felt now prior to discussions in anticipation of it. is there a scenario in which there could be a rating cut and we don't actually go over that cliff? >> potentially there could be. the fiscal cliff is not the only issue that needs to be addressed. even if it's possible to avoid the forthcoming fiscal cliff, you also need to put in place a credible deficit reduction plan. there needs to be a grand bargain across both sides of the divide to address the deficit and provide some certainty over tax and spending policies going forward. if the fiscal cliff is avoided but there is no credible deficit reduction plan put in place. then the rating will come down during the course of 2013. >> david, is it clear to you, we have a frame work called simp n simpson-bowles as you know. we have added firepower of ceos making this a pet issue. does it matter if corporate america says we're behind
prior to fiscal cliff. some would argue that companies are already pulling back and that the impact of the fiscal cliff is being felt now prior to discussions in anticipation of it. is there a scenario in which there could be a rating cut and we don't actually go over that cliff? >> potentially there could be. the fiscal cliff is not the only issue that needs to be addressed. even if it's possible to avoid the forthcoming fiscal cliff, you also need to put in place a credible deficit...
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Dec 18, 2012
12/12
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data done differently. >>> moments ago we heard house speaker boehner talk on the fiscal cliff. how could the cuts hit the health care stre. the ceo of one of the best ranked hospitals in this country, the cleveland clinic. he joins us from cleveland this morning. mr. cosgrove, good morning. >> good morning, carl. >> i don't know how anyone knows anything when you consider the new health care law, which is taking effect, and the collision between that and what might be the cliff. what is your view for what 2013 may look like? >> well, we are undergoing a major change in health care right now. the care act will bring more patients to us and we'll be paid less for looking after them, and we're having to reorganize the whole way we deliver care. the uncertainty around the fiscal cliff and potential for sequestration adds more confusion to this. this sequestration would bring about a 2% reduction in what we get paid for medicare patients, which translates into about $6 billion across the health care system in general. and particularly its influence on research we're concerned about.
data done differently. >>> moments ago we heard house speaker boehner talk on the fiscal cliff. how could the cuts hit the health care stre. the ceo of one of the best ranked hospitals in this country, the cleveland clinic. he joins us from cleveland this morning. mr. cosgrove, good morning. >> good morning, carl. >> i don't know how anyone knows anything when you consider the new health care law, which is taking effect, and the collision between that and what might be the...
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Nov 20, 2012
11/12
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also, regardless of the fiscal cliff there's cuts. the u.s. government is the world's biggest buyer of software associated with the running of any kind of government. that's another kind of corollary here. a big comment from a lot of people in the defense industry about that yesterday. i think they're the first company to come out and make realistic expectations of what will happen in the next couple of years. back to you. >> okay. thank you. dave cote is the head of the curve on all of this. let's shift to bonds and dollar. rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. rick? >> thank you, jim. everyone is excited about good housing numbers. everybody but the fixed income market. everybody but the equity market. i know there's an hp issue here. however, let's look at the charts. let's put up a two-day chart of tens. clearly you can see we're up about a basis point on the day. if you look on the right side of the chart and look around 8:30 eastern, you can't pick out that we had a good housing number. if you really switch this around a bit, you lo
also, regardless of the fiscal cliff there's cuts. the u.s. government is the world's biggest buyer of software associated with the running of any kind of government. that's another kind of corollary here. a big comment from a lot of people in the defense industry about that yesterday. i think they're the first company to come out and make realistic expectations of what will happen in the next couple of years. back to you. >> okay. thank you. dave cote is the head of the curve on all of...
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Nov 12, 2012
11/12
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. >> the fiscal cliff. that's it. colored consumer confidence the wrong way and they can't do anything. can't move. fiscal cliff. fiscal cliff. >> i don't know what to say. i don't know what to say. you mock me. >> i'm not mocking you. i'm mocking them. >> who is them? >> ceos. >> okay. i thought it was some broad international conspiracy including tri-lateral commission of the queen of england. >> just ceos who to your point are still very much undecided about making a big move. >> hold it. >> for a variety of reasons to be fair. it's that so-called uncertainty associated with things like the fiscal cliff no doubt about it. it's also the fact that making a big move in m & a typically if you're not rewarded perhaps where as if it goes well -- if it goes poorly you're going to lose your job. >> precision is the best in aerospa aerospace. you told me off camera they are really smart guys. the people who are stepping up tend to be smarter than the average bear. >> that may be the case. and in these kinds of environments
. >> the fiscal cliff. that's it. colored consumer confidence the wrong way and they can't do anything. can't move. fiscal cliff. fiscal cliff. >> i don't know what to say. i don't know what to say. you mock me. >> i'm not mocking you. i'm mocking them. >> who is them? >> ceos. >> okay. i thought it was some broad international conspiracy including tri-lateral commission of the queen of england. >> just ceos who to your point are still very much...
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Dec 13, 2012
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the fiscal cliff. he is about to give you the head start investors like. find out about it next in this mad dash. >>. >>> how will solar city fare in its debut this morning? chairman elon musk and lyndon rive will join us on cnbc. we count you down to the opening, the s & p losing less than one. if you think running a restaurant is hard, try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. we create easy-to-use, powerful trading tools for all. look at these streaming charts! they're totally customizable and they let you visualize what might happen next. that's genius! we knew you needed a platform that could really help you elevate your trading. so we built it. chances of making this? it's a lot easier to find out if a trade is potentially profitable. just use our
the fiscal cliff. he is about to give you the head start investors like. find out about it next in this mad dash. >>. >>> how will solar city fare in its debut this morning? chairman elon musk and lyndon rive will join us on cnbc. we count you down to the opening, the s & p losing less than one. if you think running a restaurant is hard, try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply...
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Dec 3, 2012
12/12
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>> if you think the fiscal cliff will be avoided, this is the stock to buy. we get no vacation they come up with a deal. they need more time to come up with a deal. no vacation until we get legislation. >> finally, we're going to get gms numbers in a few minutes here. >> these are big. >> you have a group of companies that have warned for the quarter. overwhelming number of guidance for the quarter has been negative. housing and autos. tail winds are here. >> it's the international companies that have been so disappointing. this will be a break if gm and ford can overcome the gravitational pull particularly of europe and with europe getting better in terms of finances, these might be a place to go. >> you said that a lot of these companies are going to be managing down in europe for years to come. that hasn't changed. >> no. when i see rates go down big, i always like stocks and now businesses have to follow. >> we'll see you tonight. 6:00 and 11:00 p.m. eastern time. when we come back, wall street getting ready for probably the breaking news of the day. ism
>> if you think the fiscal cliff will be avoided, this is the stock to buy. we get no vacation they come up with a deal. they need more time to come up with a deal. no vacation until we get legislation. >> finally, we're going to get gms numbers in a few minutes here. >> these are big. >> you have a group of companies that have warned for the quarter. overwhelming number of guidance for the quarter has been negative. housing and autos. tail winds are here. >> it's...
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Dec 21, 2012
12/12
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the house has already passed bills addressing the fiscal cliff. after the bill, replacing the president's sequester with responsible spending cuts and did it last may. we passed a bill to stop all the tax hikes on the american people to take effect january the 1st. and we did that on august the 1st. and we proposed plans over and over again that democrats used to support. i don't want taxes to go up. republicans don't want taxes to go up. but we only run the house. the democrats continue to run washington. what the president has proposed so far simply won't do anything to solve our spending problem. he wants more spending, and more tax hikes that will hurt our economy. and he simply won't deal honestly with entitlement reform. and the big issues that are facing our country. we need significant spending cuts, and real tax reform to address our long-term debt problem and pave the way for long-term growth and real growth in jobs in our country. we'll continue to work with our colleagues in the house and the senate on a plan that protects families and
the house has already passed bills addressing the fiscal cliff. after the bill, replacing the president's sequester with responsible spending cuts and did it last may. we passed a bill to stop all the tax hikes on the american people to take effect january the 1st. and we did that on august the 1st. and we proposed plans over and over again that democrats used to support. i don't want taxes to go up. republicans don't want taxes to go up. but we only run the house. the democrats continue to run...
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Nov 21, 2012
11/12
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remember, part of the fiscal cliff includes social security tax cut. this is that payroll tax. if that hits, it will hit everyone. not just the wealthy. as a result, if we do see that, we could see softer rates of growth than even our 1% at this point. >> what if we get a deal and get increased business spending as a result of the confidence that comes along with that? i know you're talking about takehome pay but at the same time there are those who believe that will be an engine for the positive when it comes to growth. >> it certainly could. in fact, the one thing that -- in fact, you could see this in every single earnings report that came out. if you listen to these conference calls. all cfos and titans of industry have mentioned the same thing. it's a lack of certainty with regard to the fiscal cliff. that's why you've seen cap ex expenditures slow down recently. if you look at the duke cfo survey, capital expenditure confidence has fallen. from our perspective it could add a huge degree of certainty back into the backdrop. here's the last thing i'll say on this point. if
remember, part of the fiscal cliff includes social security tax cut. this is that payroll tax. if that hits, it will hit everyone. not just the wealthy. as a result, if we do see that, we could see softer rates of growth than even our 1% at this point. >> what if we get a deal and get increased business spending as a result of the confidence that comes along with that? i know you're talking about takehome pay but at the same time there are those who believe that will be an engine for the...
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Nov 14, 2012
11/12
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i'm curious. >> many people want to go over the fiscal cliff. people who want the defense budget cut and feel the defense budget is wasteful. perhaps the headlines actually lately out of the military will make people feel a stance. people who feel they are able to teach america a lesson to go over the cliff. the cliff jumpers feel very strongly that they are doing the right thing. while i favor the first amendment, i think it's an important way to be able to discuss things. i cannot -- there's a discussion that says it's great if we jump at of fiscal cliff with the data of what happens so there are people that support jumping off the fiscal cliff as a way to teach america a lesson. >> there will be people that will discuss it every day and people in this markets are focused on it. it's a negotiation. as such even though it will take place in the public realm to a certain extent, we're going to just have to wait. there are those -- i think wall street in some ways seems to be more positive perhaps than the broader populous about the possibility o
i'm curious. >> many people want to go over the fiscal cliff. people who want the defense budget cut and feel the defense budget is wasteful. perhaps the headlines actually lately out of the military will make people feel a stance. people who feel they are able to teach america a lesson to go over the cliff. the cliff jumpers feel very strongly that they are doing the right thing. while i favor the first amendment, i think it's an important way to be able to discuss things. i cannot --...
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Dec 26, 2012
12/12
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on to the fiscal cliff this morning. the president cutting his vacation short in hawaii. the president plans to leave for washington tonight. congress expected to return on thursday. president, guys, not expected to actually arrive in washington until tomorrow morning. no talks scheduled that we know of as of yet. all the attention's going to turn to the senate, which tends to be more of a compromising body than the house is. >> yes. and the president is available in person if you should want to go over there and visit with him. or perhaps if he wants to visit with anybody else. the consensus seems to be if you get some sort of a deal, it's obviously not going to be the big deal. it will simply be something that extends the tax cuts for the vast majority of americans, at least those earning less than $250,000 a year. the consensus seems to be, carl, that if we don't get a deal by the second or third or fourth week, the super bowl week, we'll start to feel it in the economy. >> we had a notable sell-off. there is typically a bias on christmas eve, but the worst christmas e
on to the fiscal cliff this morning. the president cutting his vacation short in hawaii. the president plans to leave for washington tonight. congress expected to return on thursday. president, guys, not expected to actually arrive in washington until tomorrow morning. no talks scheduled that we know of as of yet. all the attention's going to turn to the senate, which tends to be more of a compromising body than the house is. >> yes. and the president is available in person if you should...
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Nov 16, 2012
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i got to cut back. i got to cut back because of the fiscal cliff. i think that's kind of what you're going to hear from now. >> david cote told you that. a parade of ceos who are cautious. >> cote has a good business. i mention deere and honeywell, these are companies that right now were growing. and so they had a reason to hire. honeywell has done a remarkable job. made an acquisition in refining dirty oil. talk about something we really need. making shale gas into liquified natural gas. that's a growth business. he should be the guy who is bringing people to work. for every eight people who retire, he's hiring one back. he should be hiring eight back but he says, listen, i got to do this right for the shareholders. >> on january 1st, it's not as though the world will come to an end if we don't get a deal. people are still going to spend. they may just not spend quite as much or perhaps pull back down in anticipation of not spending much then. >> it's unknown enough that it feels like it's armageddon. you go on twitter, how many geddons do you have
i got to cut back. i got to cut back because of the fiscal cliff. i think that's kind of what you're going to hear from now. >> david cote told you that. a parade of ceos who are cautious. >> cote has a good business. i mention deere and honeywell, these are companies that right now were growing. and so they had a reason to hire. honeywell has done a remarkable job. made an acquisition in refining dirty oil. talk about something we really need. making shale gas into liquified...
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Nov 19, 2012
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fiscal cliff, therefore, resolution means the budgets will be reinstated and if you are cutting the new initiative dollars, the spending just won't be there. "wall street journal" echos what i have been saying the last couple of weeks. >> people say -- the level of specificity, people are going to demand on the cut side. may be more -- definitely more than they have given us so far. even off the record. even though some of the back ground reports, that's for sure. >> listen. again, if you -- just use the methodolo methodology, viewer here, investment in the market, ask anybody you know, middle management in a company, ask them when they are being told from their senior -- people they report to. they are being told find ways to cut the budget of 2013. don't make it more complicated than that. it is almost impossible to see won't be in a recession early next year. >> gary, see you in a few moments spend it back to kayla who is back at headquarters with a mash it flash. >> check out shares of tyson foods. up about 9% today. missed revenues, beat on the bottom line. tyson was hurt by dr
fiscal cliff, therefore, resolution means the budgets will be reinstated and if you are cutting the new initiative dollars, the spending just won't be there. "wall street journal" echos what i have been saying the last couple of weeks. >> people say -- the level of specificity, people are going to demand on the cut side. may be more -- definitely more than they have given us so far. even off the record. even though some of the back ground reports, that's for sure. >>...
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Dec 12, 2012
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to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff. but use that debate as an economic one, says our next guest. chairman of the council of economic advisers under george w. bush and adviser to presidential candidate mitt romney. he's in new york city this morning. glenn, great to see you. >> good morning. likewise. >> what exactly does that mean? because of the context of higher taxes, and spending cuts, you would think there would be an economic impact. how can it not involve economics? >> well, there's certainly an economic impact. my point was just that the real issue for us is that our budget rules were designed for a different set of problems. you know, historically, movements in debt were about war and peace. you borrowed money to fight a war, you paid it off in peace time. now we're talking about the rise of the entitlement states. social security and medicare. we need different budget rules. this isn't just about a fiscal cliff. >> the demographics don't exactly help the problem either. we're in a time when the population is g
to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff. but use that debate as an economic one, says our next guest. chairman of the council of economic advisers under george w. bush and adviser to presidential candidate mitt romney. he's in new york city this morning. glenn, great to see you. >> good morning. likewise. >> what exactly does that mean? because of the context of higher taxes, and spending cuts, you would think there would be an economic impact. how can it not involve economics? >>...
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Dec 24, 2012
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>> the day before christmas, of course, still no fiscal cliff resolution. the $500 billion in spending cuts and tax increases start on january 1st unless the white house and congress reach some sort of agreement. we're joined by former pennsylvania governor ed rendell, co-chair of the campaign to fix the debt. and a cnbc contributor. governor, happy holidays. good morning to you. >> good morning, guys. >> so we're sitting here wondering what can be done in the next seven days. even in your role, if you're having to reset expectations. >> sure. i think it's fair to say the campaign is disappointed. we're not going to -- unless lightning strikes, we're not going to get a big deal. we're going to get something that avoid the cliff. kicks the can down the road on the serious issues. the serious issues, the can gets kicked into the debt ceiling. president says he's not going to deal with the debt ceiling. who knows what's going to happen at that point. i think we blew an opportunity in the last seven weeks to really sit down, do something good for the country, d
>> the day before christmas, of course, still no fiscal cliff resolution. the $500 billion in spending cuts and tax increases start on january 1st unless the white house and congress reach some sort of agreement. we're joined by former pennsylvania governor ed rendell, co-chair of the campaign to fix the debt. and a cnbc contributor. governor, happy holidays. good morning to you. >> good morning, guys. >> so we're sitting here wondering what can be done in the next seven days....
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Sep 7, 2012
09/12
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, which is that the end of the year we see a pretty dramatic cut to fiscal spending and a cliff that could kick in that could be very damaging to the economy and before that cliff happens you see uncertainty hit the economy as businesses become worried about what the trajectory looks like. when the fed is thinking about the forecast for growth, we're taking into effect downside risks, one of which is coming from the partners. >> michelle, it's not the most positive of messages but great to see you. michelle myers, senior economist. and bob bauer who disappeared somewhere. >>> straight ahead, intel taking a hit after its sales outlook. is it another nail in the coffin for the ecb world? more on that after the break. we're sitting on a bunch of shale gas. there's natural gas under my town. it's a game changer. ♪ it means cleaner, cheaper american-made energy. but we've got to be careful how we get it. design the wells to be safe. thousands of jobs. use the most advanced technology to protect our water. billions in the economy. at chevron, if we can't do it right, we won't do it at al
, which is that the end of the year we see a pretty dramatic cut to fiscal spending and a cliff that could kick in that could be very damaging to the economy and before that cliff happens you see uncertainty hit the economy as businesses become worried about what the trajectory looks like. when the fed is thinking about the forecast for growth, we're taking into effect downside risks, one of which is coming from the partners. >> michelle, it's not the most positive of messages but great...
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Dec 7, 2012
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don't go over the fiscal cliff but pass a simple tax bill. what would it entail? expend the tax cuts to those making under $250,000. increase taxes on dividends and capital gains to 23.6%. number three, know estate tax, payroll tax cut, unemployment benefits extension. basically strip everything out. no delay in sequestration. does this look like it would satisfy wall street? i don't think so. remember two essential points. it's got to be done before the end of the year and be substantive. this is pretty stripped down but this is what a lot of people are talking about that this might be all that you're able to get through. people were hoping for a bigger deal, if not a grand bargain, at least address some of the other issues. >>> let me move on. the dow's up a little bit because of high-priced stocks like ibm are up. but we're having a great day again for financials. it's been a great week overall, but this is just today. jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley and citi announcing job cuts. bank of america, i'm sorry, announcing the cuts. let me tell you what's happenin
don't go over the fiscal cliff but pass a simple tax bill. what would it entail? expend the tax cuts to those making under $250,000. increase taxes on dividends and capital gains to 23.6%. number three, know estate tax, payroll tax cut, unemployment benefits extension. basically strip everything out. no delay in sequestration. does this look like it would satisfy wall street? i don't think so. remember two essential points. it's got to be done before the end of the year and be substantive. this...
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Dec 4, 2012
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we want to make sure we don't go over the fiscal cliff and find spending cuts to control the growth of government to save what we need to do. >> you mention bowles changing his tune. he does say in his words circumstances have changed. it's up to negotiators to figure out where the middle ground is today. do you think that middle ground moved in any direction as a result of the election? >> well, i think one thing you have to see is you have status quote. president won re-election. republicans kept the majority in the house. i think you saw where the republicans went right after the election. you had the speaker say you asked for revenue. here's revenue. if the president asked for 800 billion in revenue, we're providing it in a way that we believe is a better growth to protect small business. at the same time the president said it has to be a balanced approach. two for one. if you watch for geithner proposed, new stimulus program and others, the spending increases. you won't go after spending cuts of what we've been trying to get to. >> congressman, jim cramer here. i worry that what y
we want to make sure we don't go over the fiscal cliff and find spending cuts to control the growth of government to save what we need to do. >> you mention bowles changing his tune. he does say in his words circumstances have changed. it's up to negotiators to figure out where the middle ground is today. do you think that middle ground moved in any direction as a result of the election? >> well, i think one thing you have to see is you have status quote. president won re-election....
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Nov 8, 2012
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cliff and into recession in the first half of next year. i still believe that it's most likely will get a compromise, but the probability of bad fiscal cliff event in a recession has definitely increased because of the inconclusive election as between the presidency and congress. >> yea. jerry, jim's right. you just don't know. you don't know with this kwng. you hardly know with any congress and taking a risk to your end seems risky, doesn't it? >> i guess so if that's the way you're inclined, but our belief is it's been priced into the market now for a long time and probably since the summer of '11 and from a perspective of the economy, the way stocks are valued, interest rates, it's hard to see there being any real downside here other than in an extreme case. >> even with the recession and even with the mild recession in '13. carl, we've been worried all year and the market's up double digits and certainty with the construction of the house and senate. this will get done. there will be some kicking can, if not a full-scale deal and we're
cliff and into recession in the first half of next year. i still believe that it's most likely will get a compromise, but the probability of bad fiscal cliff event in a recession has definitely increased because of the inconclusive election as between the presidency and congress. >> yea. jerry, jim's right. you just don't know. you don't know with this kwng. you hardly know with any congress and taking a risk to your end seems risky, doesn't it? >> i guess so if that's the way...
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Aug 13, 2012
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we think about the fiscal cliff. people don't talk about this in real life. >> it's going to be a big number, if everything's reversed. whether capital gains and the dividends and the bush tax cuts and you add it all up, you get into trillions of dollars, even in the u.s., trillions. >>> we start off the week, the s&p in the midst of a six-day winning streak, its longest in two years and 17 points away from a 2012 high. the dow is just 72 points away from its high for the year. if it top that is level, the dow will be at more than a 4 1/2-year high. the criticism on the markets is we're only seeing the defensive stocks move higher. you want to see some of the higher beta stocks move higher as well. financial, technology, more levered to the economy. >> they've been stalled. we had a little housing bump the other day. we also have some of these -- there was a little bit of a moment where we were buying caterpillar again, cummins, rated neutral today. but as important as our streak is, we could get the 11th week of eur
we think about the fiscal cliff. people don't talk about this in real life. >> it's going to be a big number, if everything's reversed. whether capital gains and the dividends and the bush tax cuts and you add it all up, you get into trillions of dollars, even in the u.s., trillions. >>> we start off the week, the s&p in the midst of a six-day winning streak, its longest in two years and 17 points away from a 2012 high. the dow is just 72 points away from its high for the...
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Oct 15, 2012
10/12
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to fiscal cliff, that it will actually happen? >> well, we know history. as you said, in 1982 the democrats promised reagan, promised reagan, $3 of spending cuts for every $1 of tax increase. the tax increase was real. we're still paying them. the $3 of spending cuts never happened, spending went up, not down. eight years later george herbert walker bush, a slightly cheaper date, was offered $2 of imaginary spending cuts for $1 of real tax increase. the tax increases were enacted, they're real, we're still paying them, we never got a penny of spending cuts. so obama and biden come and say, let's do a deal where we promise to cut spending down the road in return for real tax increases. the answer to that is no. we're going to cut spending, no the raise taxes. >> grover, as you probably know by now, paul ryan is out on the campaign stump promising that they're better equipped to reach some sort of compromise over the cliff. does that make you think maybe they don't have the same convictions that you do? >> no, because paul ryan unde
to fiscal cliff, that it will actually happen? >> well, we know history. as you said, in 1982 the democrats promised reagan, promised reagan, $3 of spending cuts for every $1 of tax increase. the tax increase was real. we're still paying them. the $3 of spending cuts never happened, spending went up, not down. eight years later george herbert walker bush, a slightly cheaper date, was offered $2 of imaginary spending cuts for $1 of real tax increase. the tax increases were enacted, they're...
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Dec 20, 2012
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cliff has already impacted the business mindset. you can see that play out in the confidence reports as released to business, you can see it in the new orders index, now below it's approaching break even. if you look at the hard data, the hard data has already started to soften. from our perspective, if cap-x is starting to slow down, that does not beget more hiring. so that would suggest to us that you're probably approaching the peak in terms of hiring, if it's true that the cap-x side of the esituation is starting to lose team. it's not just about the fiscal cliff. everyone wants to say the reason why it's not moving along is because of the fiscal cliff. there's so much more than that. if you look at the corporate quarterly earnings calls, they've been clear that cap-x is being reduced because of the fiscal cliff but also the global malaise we're going through. make no mistake, the global malaise is here. two-thirds are still in contraction territory. it's difficult to disentangle those ideas. >> i know it's three months old but
cliff has already impacted the business mindset. you can see that play out in the confidence reports as released to business, you can see it in the new orders index, now below it's approaching break even. if you look at the hard data, the hard data has already started to soften. from our perspective, if cap-x is starting to slow down, that does not beget more hiring. so that would suggest to us that you're probably approaching the peak in terms of hiring, if it's true that the cap-x side of the...
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Nov 13, 2012
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cliff. the preferred is smarter. >> also, the number of sales per square foot that ackman started, it didn't strike me as much. $270 per square foot. i went into the data base of sales per square foot. it didn't strike me as a goal to aspire to. >> apple is the highest there is. >> 6,050. i went down the value chain. i didn't get to macy's. publixs $480. >> amazing rotisserie chicken. a guy at that takes bags to your car. >> publix is above everybody. >> whole foods -- >> to your point on square footage, at the news stores it's significantly more than the old stores. it's up dramatically from -- so that's what he's banking on. get to 274 across the entire company, then you are somewhere better than where you are now. to your point, keep an eye on the preferred there. they have 1.5 billion in available credit and half billion in cash and they develop more cash during the course of the last -- >> hope springs eternal. it could catch fire. does pvh worry about getting paid? do suppliers worry a
cliff. the preferred is smarter. >> also, the number of sales per square foot that ackman started, it didn't strike me as much. $270 per square foot. i went into the data base of sales per square foot. it didn't strike me as a goal to aspire to. >> apple is the highest there is. >> 6,050. i went down the value chain. i didn't get to macy's. publixs $480. >> amazing rotisserie chicken. a guy at that takes bags to your car. >> publix is above everybody. >>...
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Jul 13, 2012
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. >> the fiscal cliff is a real concern. what we're looking for this quarter is more of a sense that corporations are actually cutting plans, they're starting to change their behavior based on the upcoming fiscal cliff, but the one thing that i think could bolster the market going forward is corporations haven't been spending that much cash even over the last couple of years. they have been sitting on a lot of cash. even if they halt programs, it is not like the change is going to be that dramatic. it is not like they have been spending at this phrenetic pace and all of a sudden they will cut everything heading into the second half. the other area that i think that equities, the s&p 500 could do well is the u.s. is in kind of a better position than the rest of the world at this point. we have seen this in terms of more domestically exposed stocks out performing foreign exposed stocks even within the s&p 500 by a pretty wide margin. you have the consumer discretionary sector looking pretty decent heading into earnings season,
. >> the fiscal cliff is a real concern. what we're looking for this quarter is more of a sense that corporations are actually cutting plans, they're starting to change their behavior based on the upcoming fiscal cliff, but the one thing that i think could bolster the market going forward is corporations haven't been spending that much cash even over the last couple of years. they have been sitting on a lot of cash. even if they halt programs, it is not like the change is going to be that...
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Aug 31, 2012
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and, you know, the fiscal cliff as it's known is essentially forcing congress' hands. the administration has to address the problem. otherwise you get the tax increases that will be there. you get the mandatory spending cuts. and that will be really detrimental for the u.s. economy. >> people are trying to parse through the speech. i want to read to you a brief sentence which some are calling at least one of the key paragraphs. the chairman references various studies considering the cumulative influence of all the fed's asset purchases, found total effects between 80 and 120 basis points on the ten-year treasury. these effects are economically meaningful. does that imply if they were meaningful that they're worth trying again? >> no. that doesn't follow. i think if you would keep doing the same policy over and over again, the additional effects will be less and less. the very first fed actions taken, the purchases that they had right after the crisis of '07-'08, they were highly meaningful. the fed supplied liquidity and so on. after that, in my view at least, the effe
and, you know, the fiscal cliff as it's known is essentially forcing congress' hands. the administration has to address the problem. otherwise you get the tax increases that will be there. you get the mandatory spending cuts. and that will be really detrimental for the u.s. economy. >> people are trying to parse through the speech. i want to read to you a brief sentence which some are calling at least one of the key paragraphs. the chairman references various studies considering the...
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Nov 30, 2012
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you get a fiscal cliff deal, you'll have tax increases and spending cuts. they'll cut 1%, 1.5% off gdp. that's not good for stock market in 2013. you don't get a deal, you get mandatory spending cuts that will be worse. meantime, there are shorter term worries. how about getting through today? how do you go long or short here today when over the weekend anybody -- i mean almost anybody, can appear on a sunday talk show and make some inflammatory comment about the fiscal cliff not working, it's a mess, it's never going to happen and then you wake up and you're down 15 points monday morning. that's a problem figuring out what to do over the weekend. it could go the other way. generally it's a little bit more on the gloomy side. then you have the problem with december. we're going into the last month. today is the last day of november. people are behind the curve. a shocking number of people i spoke to are below whatever their benchmark is. do you lighten up? do you stay long what you got? it's hard to maneuver around because you need to get outperformance. yo
you get a fiscal cliff deal, you'll have tax increases and spending cuts. they'll cut 1%, 1.5% off gdp. that's not good for stock market in 2013. you don't get a deal, you get mandatory spending cuts that will be worse. meantime, there are shorter term worries. how about getting through today? how do you go long or short here today when over the weekend anybody -- i mean almost anybody, can appear on a sunday talk show and make some inflammatory comment about the fiscal cliff not working, it's...
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Dec 6, 2012
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. >> just to recap, you seem very nervous about the coming weeks partly because of the fiscal cliff. people who already train and who work out regularly, you're one of the ultimate kind of discretionary expenditures, of those things that people might cut back on going into christmas. >> i think it's an unknown, i won't say it worries us, i think we have a very core guest and i think that gives me a lot of confidence in the back half of the quarter is the very strong sales that we have seen starting in october through november, we have seen a great acceleration so we know that we're a very giftable item and we would expect to see strong gift card redemption sales and so i think there's a lot of things that give us confidence that we can have a great quarter. >> christine, how big can men's be. i'm trying to figure out if you can be like nike. >> i think from there's a huge market still that we're actually creating in the athletic technical wear space as well as the technical street, which is a very big market and without putting a time frame on it, we definitely see ourselves with a b
. >> just to recap, you seem very nervous about the coming weeks partly because of the fiscal cliff. people who already train and who work out regularly, you're one of the ultimate kind of discretionary expenditures, of those things that people might cut back on going into christmas. >> i think it's an unknown, i won't say it worries us, i think we have a very core guest and i think that gives me a lot of confidence in the back half of the quarter is the very strong sales that we...
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Dec 17, 2012
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. >> there could be a break-through in the fiscal cliff negotiations. boehner asking for an equal amount of spending cuts in return. john harwood joins us this morning with the latest. listening to your comments on squawk with joe earlier this morning, you sound pretty encouraged here. >> yes. you know, i've been optimistic all along that we'd get a deal, but i said the other day that my optimism was being tested by the appearance of stalemate. you had a long period of time in which the speaker was not budging on the issue of tax rates. well, that break-through moment has occurred. that point of principal has been conceded, and that really is going to be the trigger for bargaining now. and you can see the administration starting to engage more significantly with john boehner, now that he's offered that -- made that offer in a telephone call on friday afternoon. let's go over to the main components. first of all, he wants the rate to go up to 39.6 on million-dollar incomes only. however, the president wanted the top rate to go up on $250,000 incomes. boe
. >> there could be a break-through in the fiscal cliff negotiations. boehner asking for an equal amount of spending cuts in return. john harwood joins us this morning with the latest. listening to your comments on squawk with joe earlier this morning, you sound pretty encouraged here. >> yes. you know, i've been optimistic all along that we'd get a deal, but i said the other day that my optimism was being tested by the appearance of stalemate. you had a long period of time in which...
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Dec 11, 2012
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i'm thinking, after listening this morning, how i learned to stop worrying and love the fiscal cliff. is that where we are right now? >> you know, jim, this shouldn't be that hard. the idea that we've got to get a $4 trillio over ten years, with a mix of revenue increases, spending cuts. you know, when you look at the size of our economy, when you're looking at what's asked of people all across europe, uk, all in emerging nations, this is so small on a relative basis, that it's almost unamerican we're not going to be able to step up and get it done. you know, i'm optimistic that we're going to be able to avoid the fiscal cliff. we're not going to go over that, we're not going to see sequester, the challenge is going to be, is the deal going to be big enough, comprehensive enough that we take that minimum of $4 trillion off this $16 trillion debt over the next ten years. >> we're going to intervene, no matter what, in the trends of american business, meaning as soon as this one is over, we'll have a debt ceiling. because we can't get investment going in this country. that's why people
i'm thinking, after listening this morning, how i learned to stop worrying and love the fiscal cliff. is that where we are right now? >> you know, jim, this shouldn't be that hard. the idea that we've got to get a $4 trillio over ten years, with a mix of revenue increases, spending cuts. you know, when you look at the size of our economy, when you're looking at what's asked of people all across europe, uk, all in emerging nations, this is so small on a relative basis, that it's almost...
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Dec 28, 2012
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cliff in just three days because of those automatic spending cuts to the industry. our jane welles has a look at what's ahead for defense in 2013. >> reporter: as the u.s. leaves the fog of war, the defense industry enters the fog of deficits. no industry is more vulnerable to the budget acts, and here are three predictions for 2013. first, the f-35, lockheed's joint strike fighter will be just fine. the most expensive program in history has been hit with cost overruns and production delays and concern from foreign buyers over its price. but lockheed and the pentagon have come to terms to buy another round of the jets for nearly $4 billion. morgan stanley calls the f-35 the single most important investment debate over lockheed stock. second, cash will be king. as defense spending slows, analysts say many defense companies will reduce share buyback programs and conservative capital. and look to international customers to make up for lost business at home. third, it's a bird, it's a plane, it's big brother. as criticism rises over the use of drone strikes by the obama
cliff in just three days because of those automatic spending cuts to the industry. our jane welles has a look at what's ahead for defense in 2013. >> reporter: as the u.s. leaves the fog of war, the defense industry enters the fog of deficits. no industry is more vulnerable to the budget acts, and here are three predictions for 2013. first, the f-35, lockheed's joint strike fighter will be just fine. the most expensive program in history has been hit with cost overruns and production...
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Aug 3, 2012
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. >> but fiscal policy matters and the difference of having the fiscal cliff hit in full and the full extension of all of the provisions that are currently on the books, you know, bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cut and all of the other things is that it is significant, and so there is no question around that. i doubt that fiscal policy going to be a really big net stimulative factor any time soon, but it does matter. >> for those who look at the number versus the, you call them soggy numbers in the past few months, and how much of the auto shutdowns or the degree they weren't as bad as some thought, is this a indication? >> well, most of the 25,000 increase in manufacturing was due to the auto sector, and so, you know, that takes away a little bit of the shine, and i u think that the fact that a lot of the improvement also occurred in noncyclical sectors like leisure and hospitality is a slig slightly less positive aspect, and then i think that the household servey was not good. it is a slightly better report than what we have had over the past few months but not a game changer. >>
. >> but fiscal policy matters and the difference of having the fiscal cliff hit in full and the full extension of all of the provisions that are currently on the books, you know, bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cut and all of the other things is that it is significant, and so there is no question around that. i doubt that fiscal policy going to be a really big net stimulative factor any time soon, but it does matter. >> for those who look at the number versus the, you call them...
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Nov 5, 2012
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the fiscal cliff short term is extend the tax rates, back away from defense cuts on sequestration and don't fool around with the debt ceiling. do russian pntr while we're at it. that's a good job for the lame duck. in 2013 the new congress sits down to deal with what we haven't dealt with for years. that's long term entitlement reform, a comprehensive rewrite of the tax code. git the tax code permanent, rick. 60 provisions expired last year. 41 more major proigs haves this year. we don't have a tax code in the country that's rational any longer. it sure isn't competitive. >> you hit on the big point, the timing factor. you were succeeded by ms. granholm. i read her book. she seemed confused why republicans want to lower taxes to create jobs and went through a litany of tax credit programs she had under her tenure. credits don't work. it's long-term very predictable rules moving forward. >> right. >> how long does it take to get there? >> it has to be done, in my judgment in the first six months of 2013. we have talked with chairman camp, chairman backus. now it's not just corporate an
the fiscal cliff short term is extend the tax rates, back away from defense cuts on sequestration and don't fool around with the debt ceiling. do russian pntr while we're at it. that's a good job for the lame duck. in 2013 the new congress sits down to deal with what we haven't dealt with for years. that's long term entitlement reform, a comprehensive rewrite of the tax code. git the tax code permanent, rick. 60 provisions expired last year. 41 more major proigs haves this year. we don't have a...
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Apr 30, 2012
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this includes the fiscal cliff in the united states at the end of the year, the expiration of tax cuts bumping into another deficit ceiling, but also, of course, the problems ongoing in europe. >> yeah. i know jan has had a widely circulating call for this friday's jobs number of 125 and argues that the sledding is going to get tougher in terms of economic growth as we work our way into the summer. do you agree with that? and how long of a dynamic do you think that will be? >> we certainly have seen some deceleration in economic activity. keep in mind the fact that we had such a mild winter means that from the normal seasonal adjustment process, the numbers were probably puffed up a little bit. for example, construction, which normally gets hard hit because of the winter, did not get so hard hit this year. so, what we're looking at is a slower rate of economic growth, but economic growth nonetheless. and for those investors who take the longer-term view, the sense basically is the path of economic growth is still very much to the upside, and shall we say longer economic growth, more du
this includes the fiscal cliff in the united states at the end of the year, the expiration of tax cuts bumping into another deficit ceiling, but also, of course, the problems ongoing in europe. >> yeah. i know jan has had a widely circulating call for this friday's jobs number of 125 and argues that the sledding is going to get tougher in terms of economic growth as we work our way into the summer. do you agree with that? and how long of a dynamic do you think that will be? >> we...
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Nov 15, 2012
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. >> there's so much pain coming from the economic downturn and recession and this fiscal cliff which is why i'm in town because there's real jeopardy, you know, if this sequestration, should it happen, we know there's going to be cuts, we understand them, but not cuts that cost lives. >> you know you've reached a critical mass when you have the front man of a well known band talking about sequestration. >> steve jobs, there were very few people he believed in. but the one guy he always wanted in his corner was bono. he wanted him in his economic segment because he's so smart. >> have you ever met him. >> no. >> i have. >> you have? >> i met him up in dabos. >> partied with him? >> it was a late night. but we just spent a little time with him and i was with andrew sorken, he said can we do lunch sometime? can i get your number? he said i'll find you. >> i can't believe you just gave that on air. that's great. >> that's my new one. >> the big news, was he found? >> i don't know. >> we got to get andrew on the show now. >> maybe he'll phone in. >> get an update. >>> today on the closing
. >> there's so much pain coming from the economic downturn and recession and this fiscal cliff which is why i'm in town because there's real jeopardy, you know, if this sequestration, should it happen, we know there's going to be cuts, we understand them, but not cuts that cost lives. >> you know you've reached a critical mass when you have the front man of a well known band talking about sequestration. >> steve jobs, there were very few people he believed in. but the one guy...
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Jun 26, 2012
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speaking of the fiscal cliff part of the cnbc yahoo! poll today, which is the biggest headwind for the economy right now. go vote, watch power lunch at 1:00 p.m. eastern time for results. >>> big news in the sports world. an announcement for an official playoff system for college football. darren ravel with rovell with a have talked about for years. >> years and years. might be tonight a four-game playoff -- four-team may have system for football. four teams face each other in a semifinal game with winners advancing to the final. as far back as 1966 there's record of talk of a playoff system for college football as a more complicated computer system for bcs emerged, and as you alluded to, confused for late '90s to today. the call to do something more fair like ncaa basketball tournament got much louder. then, of course, there's the money as there have been nothing hotter than sports tv rights. espn paying $155 for bcs package that expires at the end of 2013 season. projections a the four-team playoff could be worth between $350 and $500
speaking of the fiscal cliff part of the cnbc yahoo! poll today, which is the biggest headwind for the economy right now. go vote, watch power lunch at 1:00 p.m. eastern time for results. >>> big news in the sports world. an announcement for an official playoff system for college football. darren ravel with rovell with a have talked about for years. >> years and years. might be tonight a four-game playoff -- four-team may have system for football. four teams face each other in a...
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Nov 28, 2012
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comments from boehner, so the fiscal cliff is center stage, but there's in wildcard, a real wildcard out there. that of course is the fact that the greeks in for weeks have to buy back their debt on the open market and cancel it with loans from the rest of europe. that is a precondition to getting that money that was agreed on month night. there's a big concern to whether they can achieve that. today the finance minister of greece held a news conference to talk up that trade. they royaltied deutsche bank and we learned they will be in charge of it the next couple weeks. this guy said they hot this was a bargain, but the fear for many in the martial is they will be strong-armed, and again you see the way in which -- the greek banks are down over 50%. so you see national bank of greece down 7%, that's the big one, but the others continue to fall. the minister said there wouldn't be a need for further recapitalization, but clearly at this sort of level, that is always a concern. now, this is also a time in which american hedge funnels can cash out po tefrlgally on massive products, on t
comments from boehner, so the fiscal cliff is center stage, but there's in wildcard, a real wildcard out there. that of course is the fact that the greeks in for weeks have to buy back their debt on the open market and cancel it with loans from the rest of europe. that is a precondition to getting that money that was agreed on month night. there's a big concern to whether they can achieve that. today the finance minister of greece held a news conference to talk up that trade. they royaltied...
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Mar 13, 2012
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bernanke said it's a fiscal cliff kicking in and as a response to that, businesses, in our view, will be anticipating that and will cut down in terms of their investment and spending in advance and that will cause slow down and overall growth. >> michelle, do we think that the journal last week was a head fake for anyone who took hope from it? >> no, i wouldn't say that it's a head fake. i think it expresses one more option that the fed has and for good reason. it's an interesting way of looking at it. it's not our baseline view. we don't think the fed will go ahead with sterilized qe but it's something that we should be looking at and put some weight on. it's kind of another way of doing an operation twist on this. >> if the lighter thought is that, okay, jobs are good but you've got to see final demand and consumption, are retail sales data point but isn't that a step in that direction? >> it's a pretty big step in that direction. the retail sales numbers were strong and the one point i would say is there has been a usual divergence for the retail sales figures and what you're seein
bernanke said it's a fiscal cliff kicking in and as a response to that, businesses, in our view, will be anticipating that and will cut down in terms of their investment and spending in advance and that will cause slow down and overall growth. >> michelle, do we think that the journal last week was a head fake for anyone who took hope from it? >> no, i wouldn't say that it's a head fake. i think it expresses one more option that the fed has and for good reason. it's an interesting...
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Dec 10, 2012
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will we go over the fiscal cliff. >> plus, apple official lofficit weekly loss since 2010. we're going to get your technical analysis still ahead. you won't take my life. you won't take our future. aids affects us all. even babies. chevron is working to stop mother-to-child transmission. our employees and their families are part of the fight. and we're winning. at chevron nigeria, we haven't had a reported case in 12 years. aids is strong. aids is strong. but we are stronger. and aids... ♪ aids is going to lose. aids is going to lose. ♪ it's easy to follow the progress you're making toward all your financial goals. a quick glance, and you can see if you're on track. when the conversation turns to knowing where you stand, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. ♪ [ male announcer ] 'tis the season to discover the kid in all of us. enjoy free shipping and great values on your holiday shopping from l.l. bean. for over 60,000 california foster children, the holidays can be an especially difficult time. everything's different now. sometimes i feel all alone. christmas used to be
will we go over the fiscal cliff. >> plus, apple official lofficit weekly loss since 2010. we're going to get your technical analysis still ahead. you won't take my life. you won't take our future. aids affects us all. even babies. chevron is working to stop mother-to-child transmission. our employees and their families are part of the fight. and we're winning. at chevron nigeria, we haven't had a reported case in 12 years. aids is strong. aids is strong. but we are stronger. and aids......
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Apr 27, 2012
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. >> you know, steve, you did mention the fiscal cliff. and it's something that's going to come into more and more focus. $500 million or so. and when you get those automatic spending cuts, that's got to become a huge issue. >> what's so entrustsing is it's a bad enough problem on its own. it's a horrible problem, a context of the political fight. >> thank you very much, guys. let's take a coffee break. starbucks is currently trading after its results. the retailer reporting second quarter earnings. however, the slow down to steve's point in europe and, indeed, rising coffee stocks are weighing on the stock. joining us now is matt defrisco. also, heath joins us as he covers starbucks for credit sweets. what do you make of what they say? >> let's keep it in perspective. i think the big thing here was it's not that coffee costs are higherer, right. it's how much the deflays flags flows through in fiscal 13. some others expected more. and really what happened was they bought more than the slightly higher prices than we thought. you certainly
. >> you know, steve, you did mention the fiscal cliff. and it's something that's going to come into more and more focus. $500 million or so. and when you get those automatic spending cuts, that's got to become a huge issue. >> what's so entrustsing is it's a bad enough problem on its own. it's a horrible problem, a context of the political fight. >> thank you very much, guys. let's take a coffee break. starbucks is currently trading after its results. the retailer reporting...
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Jul 18, 2012
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cliff. the euro cliff. we have the cliffs. the ceos saying, you know what? honeywell, things are pretty good. europe is weak. jpmorgan upgrades ford and gm today. housing really strong. >> oh yeah. >> we are seeing -- not down that much. quarter after quarter after quarter that makes me feel so terrific like a parallel universe. >> wow. >> when worlds collide. excellent book. >> from some like it hot to that. >> it is all about google. >> one of the highlights of course right here of delivering alpha this morning, we started off with an exclusive interview with the treasury secretary tim geithner. you say it right here if you're watching cnbc which you were. larry kudlow conducted that interview. the host of "the kudlow report" of course and right here to my left. tell us what happened. what his thoughts were. nice to see you. >> nice to see you. nice to see you. i want to say one thing in doing my homework for the interview, i went and got my friend jim kram who are interviewed last year an
cliff. the euro cliff. we have the cliffs. the ceos saying, you know what? honeywell, things are pretty good. europe is weak. jpmorgan upgrades ford and gm today. housing really strong. >> oh yeah. >> we are seeing -- not down that much. quarter after quarter after quarter that makes me feel so terrific like a parallel universe. >> wow. >> when worlds collide. excellent book. >> from some like it hot to that. >> it is all about google. >> one of the...